Gambling with their future

Isabel Kershner has an article in The New York Times about Palestine:

It is far from clear what will happen when the Palestinians go to the United Nations next week to seek recognition of statehood. But the initiative is engaging a Palestinian public that had become deeply cynical after twenty years of intermittent Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. Many Palestinians in the Kalandia refugee camp between Ramallah and Jerusalem said that they were excited by the prospect of their territory’s being declared a state, but that they recognized that it would not immediately improve their lives. Instead, they braced for possible punitive steps by the United States and Israel. “Abu Mazen is doing a good thing, but the reactions could be bad,” said Khairiyya Abd al-Rahman, 66, a matronly resident of the refugee camp, using the popular name of the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas.
Going to the United Nations remains a high-stakes gambit for Abbas. Whether it succeeds or fails, the Palestinians’ frustration is likely to increase if their reality does not change. And while many Palestinians say they do not foresee the eruption of a third uprising, they warn that something is bound to give eventually if there is no measurable progress.
“Of course, frustration can turn to chaos,” said Najeh Abd al-Majid, another resident of the camp, a frequent point of clashes between Palestinian youths and the Israeli military.
When the annual United Nations gathering begins, the Palestinian leadership could take its statehood bid to the Security Council, where the United States has vowed to use its veto, or it could opt for a vote in the General Assembly, a more modest route that would upgrade the Palestinian representation to that of a non-member observer state, comparable to the Holy See.
Israel and the United States have tried to stop the showdown, warning of dire consequences and insisting that the only way to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is through direct negotiations. Israel has not spelled out the possible fallout of a vote, but some on the right have called for the suspension of the transfer of tax revenues to the Palestinian Authority, the cancellation of agreements, and the annexation of territory containing Jewish settlement blocs in the West Bank. There has been talk in Washington of cutting financing as well.
Yet the Palestinian public’s mood is strongly in favor of the United Nations bid, whatever the risks. “We have to do it,” said Selwa Yassin, 51, from the village of Ein Yabrud in the Ramallah district. “The consequences,” Yassin said, “cannot be worse than losing all of Palestine.”
For now, the Palestinian leadership is trying to foster a festive atmosphere. In Ramallah, volunteers gave store owners and motorists flags emblazoned with the campaign logo UN Palestine State No. 194, a reference to the goal of becoming the 194th member of the United Nations.
Those acquainted with the details say that the aspiration is to become a full-member state. “We do not want an honorary position,” said Qusai Khatib, 40, a barber and a teacher in Kalandia. “This would have no taste.”
For Palestinians seeking independence, even virtual statehood would represent a new phase in a long struggle. But in a reflection of the Palestinian leadership’s conflicted attitude toward its own initiative, Abbas appears to want to shake things up abroad, while avoiding any major turmoil at home. His instructions are for peaceful rallies to take place in the center of Palestinian cities, far from any friction points with the Israelis. Organizers have called on the Palestinian public to rally twice, on 21 September, the opening of the general debate in the United Nations General Assembly, and on 23 September, when Abbas is scheduled to address the forum. “From our side, no confrontations, no chaos,” Abbas told reporters in Ramallah last week. “Our instructions were very strict: don’t go to the roadblocks, don’t make any friction with the Israelis, don’t run to the Israelis. If they come to the cities, don’t react.”
The Palestinian leadership has recruited Abdallah Abu Rahma, an advocate of non-violence and a leader of the popular resistance movement from Bilin, a West Bank village, as the coordinator of the Palestine 194 campaign. “We are trying to be like the Arab Spring,” Abu Rahma said, “to bring large numbers of Palestinians into the squares.”
The eagerness to avoid confrontation stems from the leadership’s desire to preserve its interests, according to Palestinian experts. Among other things, the Palestinian Authority, which governs in the West Bank, wants to maintain security cooperation with Israel and to prevent its rival, Hamas, the militant Islamic group that controls Gaza, from exploiting any tumult. It also wants to continue with state-building efforts and to avoid further damage to the authority’s already troubled financial situation.
“This is the outcome of a bargaining process within the Palestinian leadership,” said Khalil Shikaki, a prominent Palestinian political analyst in Ramallah. “It is about how to balance between those who want to do something dramatic and those who want to maintain the status quo, however despicable the situation may be.” Shikaki added that Abbas, who is cautious by nature, also might not want to jeopardize the chance of resuming negotiations with the Israelis.
Palestinians say they fear provocations by Israeli settlers. Extremists have already stepped up their activities, vandalizing two mosques in West Bank villages this month.
The Israeli military says that it will tolerate Palestinian demonstrations within the confines of the cities and will generally act with restraint. Brigadier General Michael Edelstein, the officer commanding the paratroopers and infantry responsible for preserving order this month, told reporters that the army had equipped itself with a broader range of nonlethal weaponry. It has acquired more than twenty water-cannon trucks that can spray water or a foul-smelling liquid known locally as skunk; huge loudspeakers that can also emit intolerable noise to scatter protesters; and tear-gas launchers fitted with sights to allow soldiers to aim better when firing the gas canisters.
Palestinians insist that the new emphasis is on peaceful resistance after two intifadas that they say achieved little. But there are concerns that encouraging people to demonstrate in the streets could unleash unpredictable forces. “People are not interested in clashes,” said Yusef Ehab, 18, who works in his family’s toy shop in downtown Ramallah. That would serve the Israelis’ interest, he said, because “Israel is interested in showing how the Palestinians are violent. Peacefully, peacefully,” he said, raising his hands in a sign of surrender.

Rico says he doubts they'll pull off a peaceful protest...