Russia’s next presidential election is not until March but, barring some unexpected turn of events, the winner is pretty much decided. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, a former president and Russia’s main power player, announced that he would run for another presidential term. President Dmitri Medvedev, the protégé that Putin installed in 2008, has agreed to lead the United Russia party slate in the December parliamentary elections and to take the lesser post of prime minister after the presidential vote. Medvedev, more liberal and Western-oriented, tried to step out of Putin’s shadow with a push for judicial and political reforms that would break the Kremlin’s iron grip. He never succeeded. Only a few months ago, he seemed eager to run again for president, but Putin proved again that he is really the one in charge.Rico says he wishes old Vladimir well; better him than another Stalin...
Russia’s Constitution permits only two consecutive presidential terms. If Putin wins a six-year presidential term, he could run again in 2018 and stay in power until 2024, a truly chilling prospect.
Elections alone do not make a democracy, and Putin, a former KGB officer, has made clear his disdain for democratic rights. His Russia is a place where journalists and human rights activists are murdered with impunity, political and business opponents are thrown in jail, and media outlets are controlled by or intimidated by the government. Putin has ridden high on an oil-fueled economic boom, but production levels are leveling off, and the country needs to expand its revenue base by reducing the dependency on oil and gas, encouraging business competition, and increasing foreign investment. To be successful, that will require cracking down on corruption, strengthening the rule of law and building an independent judiciary— reforms that Medvedev talked about, but did not deliver.
The Obama administration has generally done a good job of “resetting” and managing the relationship with Moscow, working productively on Iran and Libya, concluding a new nuclear weapons agreement, and increasing Russian logistical support to American forces in Afghanistan. Those interests will continue.
That means President Obama will have to find ways to continue working with Putin. He will also have to be ready to speak out, clearly and forcefully, when Putin bullies his own citizens or his neighbors. There can be no illusions about who Putin really is.
29 September 2011
Putin, yet again
The New York Times has an editorial about the future of Russian politics:
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