12 June 2010

It's seppuku time again*

Hiroko Tabuchi has an article in The New York Times about new problems with the Japanese economy:
Japan’s newly installed prime minister startled the nation on Friday by warning that it could face a financial crisis of Greek proportions if it does not tackle its colossal debt. The stark words from the prime minister, Naoto Kan, followed by mere hours the resignation of his banking minister and ally in the governing Democratic Party, Shizuka Kamei, an advocate of big spending. Mr. Kamei’s departure seemed to signal that the new government would focus on reducing Japan’s heavy government debt, called sovereign debt, by far the highest in the industrialized world, and cutting back on the wasteful public works projects. “It is difficult to sustain a policy that relies too heavily on issuing debt,” Mr. Kan told the Japanese Parliament in his first policy speech. “As we have seen with the financial confusion in the European Community stemming from Greece, our finances could collapse if trust in national bonds is lost and growing national debt is left alone.”
Worried by the Greek debt crisis, policy makers around the world have increasingly raised the alarm over runaway government spending of the past two years, as the world has grappled with an economic crisis. This week, Ben S. Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, warned that the United States budget appeared to be on “an unsustainable path”, while also recognizing that an “exceptional increase” in the deficit had been necessary to ease the pain of recession. New prime ministers in both Britain and Hungary warned last week that their nations’ budget problems were more severe than their predecessors had let on.
Japan’s public debt, at $9.7 trillion, was close to twice its gross domestic product in 2009. But, in contrast to Greece, most of that is held domestically, putting Japan, the world’s second largest economy after the United States, on a better financial footing. Still, some analysts have warned that Japan’s graying population may begin to retire and cash in their bonds, forcing the government to look abroad for financing. In January, the ratings agency Standard & Poor’s cut its outlook for Japan’s sovereign debt rating, saying that the government appeared to have no plan to start containing debt.
The statements from Mr. Kan appeared to press for an agenda he calls the Third Way for the country’s economy. This would avoid the mistakes of previous governments, he has said, by limiting the enormous investment in public works that propped up the economy in the 1990s, while also stepping back from the deregulation Japan dabbled with over the last decade.
Instead, he envisions raising taxes and investing heavily in new fields like health and the environment, a move he says will create jobs, raise incomes and bring about economic growth. In his speech, Mr. Kan called for a bipartisan debate on raising the five percent sales tax in Japan to help pay for soaring social welfare costs brought on by the country’s aging society. “The stagnation we are experiencing now is due in great part to a struggling economy, burgeoning budget deficit and a breakdown of trust in social welfare,” he said. “Instead, the new government will build a strong economy, strong public finances and a strong social welfare system.”
Mr. Kan’s new national strategy minister, Satoshi Arai, said Friday that the government would draft a mid- to long-term plan by 22 June to address Japan’s debt. The government would seek to cap bond issuance below $500 billion in the fiscal year ending in March of 2012.
How aggressively Mr. Kan can pursue any agenda will depend on the outcome of nationwide elections for Parliament’s upper house on 11 July. Support for the Democrats, which slumped under the previous prime minister, Yukio Hatoyama, has rebounded under the new leadership.
Mr. Kan’s prospects may be buoyed further by the departure of Mr. Kamei, the banking minister and vocal head of a tiny coalition partner that has often undermined the Democrats by straying from the government line. Shozaburo Jimi, a lawmaker from Mr. Kamei’s People’s New Party, was named the new banking minister.
Rico says there are problems right there in River City (that would be the Arakawa River), and he doesn't envy them solving them. But, in real life if not in politics, more severe than their predecessors had let on is called lying...

*sung to the tune of It's seppuku time again, don't know where, don't know when...

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