I'd mentioned the whole Kurds-as-start-of-the-avalanche notion earlier. Courtesy of the DEBKAfile, there's now confirmation that the Kurds may just pull the pin on the whole situation.
Just to add fuel to the mix, the Kurds have apparently been using Israeli trainers to improve their troops. From the DEBKAfile, a report that "before Abu Musab al Zarqawi was taken out by American forces, his men sought high and low for Israeli instructors to abduct as hostages, but never found them".
In addition, and more worrisome, "Ankara is keen to get in its blow against Kurdistan before an American action against Iran. The Turks buy Russian and Iranian intelligence evaluations, according to which the US attack may take place at any time between the last week of September and the end of December, 2006. So they feel the ground is burning under their feet. Iran, for its part, is waiting for Turkey to make the first move in Iraqi Kurdistan. Its troops will go into action only after the first Turkish soldier and tank are on the move."
Anyone besides me remember the last quiet days of August, 1914...
27 September 2006
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