06 December 2014

First snow dates


Tony Wood has an article in The Philadelphia Inquirer about the upcoming start of winter:
As John Bolaris mentioned in his philly.com post, a nor’easter could affect the region next week, and, yes, it’s that time of year. Right now the computer models are all over the place, which is understandable given the complexities and potential scenarios. Cold rain is possible on Tuesday and, if the storm bombs out of the coast, some snow could wrap in at the end.
Parts of the region already have received measurable snow, as much as three and four inches, but, officially, Philadelphia hasn’t had anything more than a trace yet.
Thus, on the off-chance that Philadelphia receives anything measurable next week, meaning 0.1 inches or more, it would be the city’s first of the season, and come right about on schedule.
In the 130 years of snow records, the average date of the first official measurable snow in Philadelphia is 11 December. This has been a highly moveable feast, varying from year to year, and with tremendous decadal variability.
In the 1980s, for example, the average start date was 3 December; in the 1990s, 5 January. Our only explanation would be that the atmosphere is capricious and snow, even more capricious.
Philadelphia has had some memorable first snows. Recall that last year, it came in ambush on 8 December while the Philadelphia Eagles (photo) were hosting the Detroit Lions. Thus Football Nation had the opportunity to witness a major forecast slip-up.
The first snow of 2009 didn’t arrive until 19 December; that day, 22.5 inches was measured officially at Philadelphia International Airport.
Rico says he's not looking forward to it...

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