Apple for the day

Brian Chen has an article in The New York Times about the new iPhone:

For Apple, the unveiling of new iPhones is like the debut of a blockbuster movie. Eager fans lined up to be the first (photo) to experience the new gadgets. And investors will closely watch first-weekend sales, in much the same way movie producers track box office numbers.
Expectations for this year’s batch of iPhones are generally high. The two new models— the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus— are significant upgrades, with much larger screens than past models. They cater to growing consumer demand for bigger screens on smartphones.
Most of the people lining up for new iPhones this weekend will probably be Apple customers most enthusiastic about having the next shiny new iThing. But if history is a measure, first-weekend sales are a strong indicator of overall demand for Apple’s phones.
In 2012, Apple sold five million iPhone 5 smartphones in the first three days they were on sale. Then, during the holiday quarter, the most lucrative period for Apple and tech companies in general, Apple sold about fifty million iPhones, compared with forty million in the same period a year earlier.
Last year, Apple sold nine million of its iPhone 5S and iPhone 5C devices in the first three days they were on sale. Then, over the holiday quarter, Apple sold fifty million of them. So, if the new iPhones with larger screens bring in big first-weekend numbers, that could indicate another immensely profitable holiday quarter for Apple. Analysts’ predictions, however, are mixed.
Maynard Um, a financial analyst for Wells Fargo, expects this weekend’s iPhone sales to be high. He said that, based partly on the four million early online orders for the new iPhones, Apple should sell them in the “low teens” of millions, which would be much higher than first-weekend sales for past models.
Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst for Sanford C. Bernstein, has lower expectations, because the sales number will depend largely on how many iPhones that Apple can make. He believes that Apple will sell from seven to eight million new iPhones this weekend. Many people who ordered the devices online have reported estimated delivery times of up to a month. That suggests Apple may be facing tighter supply constraints for the new iPhones compared with past models, Sacconaghi said. He also noted that, unlike last year’s iPhones, the latest ones will not initially go on sale in China, the largest smartphone market in the world.
Gene Munster, an analyst for Piper Jaffray, offered an even lower estimate of just over six million units. Like Sacconaghi, Munster said the number of iPhones that Apple can sell this weekend will depend on the number it can provide to retailers. And multiple signs point to a tight supply.
That, Munster said, is why first-weekend numbers may no longer be a reliable indicator of overall demand for iPhones. “The trouble is, they’ve gotten so big, in so many retail points, that the speed of which they fill up those retail points adds a lot of confusion to the opening number,” he said.
A clearer indicator of consumer demand at this point may be the four million early online orders for new iPhones. That number signals strong interest without ties to issues like limitations in supply, Munster said.

Rico says there was enough of a line at the local Apple Store to warrant a security guard, but he's still saving up...