Apple's stranglehold on the media tablet market with the iPad could match its previous dominance of the touchscreen smartphone space with the iPhone, according to industry analysts. After capturing 83.9 percent of the media tablet market in 2010, Apple should see its market share decline steadily over time, according to Gartner. But rival Google's Android-based tablets won't begin to match Apple's iPad numbers until 2015, when Apple will have 47.1 percent to Android's 38.6 percent, the research firm predicted Monday.
Apple, of course, has an enviable track record of leaping out of the gate with consumer devices ahead of its competitors. The first-generation iPhone was released in June 2007 and Apple watched as the media hoopla surrounding such would-be iPhone-killers as the Blackberry Storm (Nov. 2008) and Palm Pre (June 2009) came and went; ultimately, it wasn't until the release of the Motorola Droid in Oct. 2009 that Apple's iPhone faced a truly competitive capacitive touchscreen smartphone.
Some analysts believe Apple could have an even lengthier edge over competitors in the tablet market. Here's a rundown of what industry watchers are saying about Apple's current tablet dominance and how long it could last:
Sascha Segan, lead mobile analyst, PCMag.com: "Until somebody else comes out with a finished-feeling tablet OS experience, Apple still stands alone in offering a tablet OS that is a) designed for tablets and b) fully functional. Android 2.2 and Windows 7 don't have tablet-centric user interfaces or app libraries, Android 3.0 is essentially still in beta, and there's no WebOS tablet yet.
"Remember, though, the first year of Android on phones was also a slow time. Google likes to release stuff to the public a bit before it's fully baked. So, that said, I'll say the market will start shifting a year from the Motorola Xoom's release in March 2011."
Carolina Milanesi, research vice president, Gartner: "Seeing the response from both consumers and enterprises to the iPad, many vendors are trying to compete by first delivering hardware and then trying to leverage the platform ecosystem. Many, however, are making the same mistake that was made in the first response wave to the iPhone, as they are prioritizing hardware features over applications, services and overall user experience. Tablets will be much more dependent on the latter than smartphones have been, and the sooner vendors realize that, the better chance they have to compete head-to-head with Apple."
Jon Peddie, principal analyst, Jon Peddie Associates: "Apple is the only company to offer one-stop shopping and a system that totally and completely works. All other tablet suppliers have partners to provide stores, content, network, etc. As long as they make it easy, cool and affordable they will hold the lead. The only potential challenger on the horizon is HP, but it will take HP at least two years to get everything pulled together under one roof. What many people fail to appreciate is that Apple doesn't sell a tablet— Apple sells a top-to-bottom easy to use system. All the other pretenders to the throne sell a component— the tablet.
"Amazon understood this when they brought out the Kindle. There are over a dozen ebook readers available, so what? It's the content, the network, the pricing, and the inventory. Apple gets it, Amazon gets it. The others probably get it, but can't execute because of costs, deal structures and distraction from their traditional businesses— they're stuck in the status quo."
Rhoda Alexander, director of monitor research, IHS iSuppli: "We're looking at 2013 before the crossover point for all the other tablet operating systems to catch up to Apple iOs. And we had already moved that date back and are now moving it back out again. Of course, Apple could still be the leading OS among many going into 2014. At the moment, Android certainly looks like the most likely competitor. But that depends on how you look at WebOS. HP has indicated that it will move WebOS across all its categories.
"If anything, this is even more challenging for competitors than the smartphone scenario. If you look at the content suite, that's where everybody is really lagging. Amazon is most competitive on content. So you've got competitors that have the hardware but don't have the content. And some who have content but no hardware product in the works."
Susan Kevorkian, research director, mobile connected devices, IDC: "We believe Apple will dominate the media tablet market in terms of technology and feature innovation during and beyond the current forecast period. Apple will continue to set the bar high for its competitors, and the iPad will be positioned at the high end of the market.
"In terms of worldwide shipments, we believe Apple will dominate the market through 2012, when we expect iOS to represent 53.9 percent of total media tablet unit volume. In 2013 and beyond it will drop to less than half, and in 2015 iOS will represent 47.5 percent of total worldwide media tablet shipments. Android will be iOS' primary competitor during the forecast from an operating system perspective.
But keep in mind that multiple tier one device vendors, not to mention tier two and three vendors, will leverage Android, and all of those vendors will be competing with each other as well as Apple. HP with WebOS will be an important competitor, as will Research In Motion with BlackBerry Tablet OS and its strong ties to the enterprise."
Rob Enderle, principal analyst, Enderle Group: "There is no credible threat yet to Apple's dominance in the tablet market. So far, the competing products that have come to market have been incomplete, too expensive and under-marketed. Actual retail sales have been horrid, suggesting this is starting to look like a repeat of the iPod, where success only occurred in geographies that Apple didn't care that much about.
"Asus tried an aggressive anti-iPad campaign, but Best Buy killed it. The only big risk on Apple's horizon is Steve Jobs' departure and while that may provide some opportunities— unless competitors actually find a way to execute— Apple will likely continue to dominate this segment."
12 April 2011
Stranglehold? A good thing, in this case
Damon Poeter has an article at PCMag.com about the iPad:
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