Down for the count in the Ivory Coast

Adam Nossiter has an article in The New York Times about the situation in the Ivory Coast:

Reeling from mass defections among his soldiers and security forces, Laurent Gbagbo, the Ivory Coast’s strongman, deployed a dwindling but determined band of loyalists to defend his residence, the state television station, and the presidential palace, in an effort to hold on to power.
Gunfire, explosions, and the sound of heavy weapons could be heard throughout the day in Abidjan, Ivory Coast’s largest city and economic capital, as forces supporting Mr. Gbagbo’s rival, Alassane Ouattara, who won the presidential election last year, stormed the city after a four-day lightning-fast advance during which most of the Ivory Coast fell into their hands.
The state television station, which had been a loudspeaker for Mr. Gbagbo’s defiant refusals to step down since he lost the election to Mr. Ouattara, changed hands amid heavy fighting, and residents throughout the sprawling port city, once a prosperous metropolis, stayed inside their homes.
Diplomats suggested that Mr. Gbagbo’s struggle to stay in power, despite wide international condemnation, sanctionss and, most recently, the opposition’s advance, was near its end.
“We are moving toward a rapid denouement,” said Choi Young-jin, the United Nations’ special representative in the Ivory Coast, speaking from the group’s Abidjan headquarters, itself a target of Mr. Gbagbo’s forces. “When depends on his will to resist,” Mr. Choi said, adding: “The trend is irreversible. He has no choice but to step down. They can’t recover from this situation.”
Mr. Gbagbo’s whereabouts were unknown, but several spokesmen said he had not left the country and had no intention of giving up. Mr. Gbagbo had “the upper hand,” his adviser Alain Toussaint told the French television network France 24.
Mr. Gbagbo’s foreign minister, Alcide Djédjé, reached by phone, said hurriedly: “I’m in a meeting with the president,” before hanging up.
Mr. Ouattara’s followers said they were not surprised that Mr. Gbagbo had not surrendered, despite what appeared to be the collapse of his forces throughout the country.
“With him, the knife must be on his throat,” said Apollinaire Yapi, a spokesman for Mr. Ouattara. “He is more afraid of prison than of death.”
Still, there were indications that Mr. Gbagbo’s hours in power were slipping away. In the last week, an estimated 50,000 of his fighters in the army and the police have defected, Mr. Choi said. Key officers, including generals, have quit. Even his army chief of staff abandoned his post, to seek refuge with South African diplomats. Despite encountering resistance around crucial buildings, officials in Mr. Ouattara’s government said Abidjan was under their control. But there was some confusion, with one adviser saying that Mr. Ouattara’s forces had entered the presidential residence and another denying it. “There are not real battles in the neighborhoods,” said Patrick Achi, an adviser to Mr. Ouattara. “There are no longer neighborhoods under the control of Gbagbo.”
Mr. Ouattara has also begun issuing orders closing the country’s borders and establishing a curfew, that, until recently, had been in Mr. Gbagbo’s strict purview.
The fighting had died down by nightfall on Friday, but residents still spoke of a terrifying day spent hunkered down, as gunfire and exchanges of heavy weapons could be heard all around. One man, speaking from the Adjamé neighborhood, was repeatedly drowned out over the telephone by the sound of gunfire. “Everyone is very frightened; we are forced to stay inside and lie low,” the man said, asking that his name not be used for fear of reprisals. “There are many of them, and they are heavily armed,” he said, referring to members of a pro-Gbagbo youth militia who have been armed over the last several weeks. “And they don’t hesitate to open fire. We’ve been stuck in the house for three days.”
Mr. Yapi, the Ouattara spokesman, said that fighting between Mr. Ouattara’s and Mr. Gbagbo’s forces had taken place around the presidential palace; the headquarters of the paramilitary gendarmerie, which has been held responsible for attacks on civilians; and Mr. Gbagbo’s residence. “The fighting is sustained,” Mr. Yapi said, “with all sorts of weapons,” including mortars. He said it had gone on all the previous night. “Now the question is, where is he? If his residence is being defended, one can suppose he is inside it,” Mr. Yapi said. In Geneva, the United Nations human rights office urged Mr. Ouattara’s camp to restrain its forces after what the agency described as “unconfirmed reports of quite serious human rights violations.” It also said there had been sporadic reports of pro-Gbagbo troops killing civilians. “We are trying to highlight to the Ouattara forces that they should avoid revenge and human rights abuses,” Rupert Colville, a spokesman for the human rights office, said in a telephone interview from Geneva.
In Abidjan (photo), the trend seemed clear. “Gbagbo is no longer in control,” said a diplomat who lives near the presidential residence in the Cocody area, speaking as the gun battle raged. “He’s lost power. The only power he has is in his place of residence, and protected by the force we knew would be loyal.”