A temporary setback

The familiar team of Kareem Fahim and David Kirkpatrick (who's now getting second billing) have an article in The New York Times about the situation in Libya:

Rebel forces’ westward charge was repulsed by a barrage of tank and artillery fire from forces guarding one of Colonel Muammar el-Qaddafi’s most crucial bastions of support, while the American military warned that the insurgents’ rapid advances could quickly be reversed without continued coalition air support.
“The regime still vastly overmatches opposition forces militarily,” General Carter F. Ham, the ranking American in the coalition operation, warned in an email. “The regime possesses the capability to roll them back very quickly. Coalition air power is the major reason that has not happened.”
The sober assessment came as President Obama addressed the nation about the American role in Libya amid continuing questions about its objectives and duration.
General Ham said there had been some “localized wavering” of government forces, notably in Ajdabiya, to the east, but so far only isolated instances of military or government officials defecting to the opposition. His remarks came after American and European bombs battered the coastal city of Surt, the rebels’ next objective, in Colonel Qaddafi’s tribal homeland, permitting the insurgents to advance to within 45 miles of the city.
The rebels had pushed west on Sunday from Ajdabiya past the oil towns of Brega and Ras Lanuf, recapturing the two important refineries, and then set their sights on Surt. But on Monday there was no sign of a rebel takeover of Surt and the city seemed quiet, although a stream of civilian cars and some military vehicles was seen heading west from Surt toward Tripoli, 225 miles away.
By late afternoon, however, hundreds of rebel cars and trucks came speeding down the road to a checkpoint near Bin Jawwad, a town directly east of Surt that has switched hands three times in the last month, and seems to have split loyalties, rebel fighters said.
The rebel advance had been too easy, and there had been no resistance, said Sherif Layas, a marketing manager from Tripoli who fought with the rebels. “This made us go forward,” he said. “And then we met the tanks.” With that, he said, they panicked and retreated en masse.
Several also described a ruse in which pro-Qaddafi forces stationed about twelve miles west of Bin Jawwad waved white flags to lure them close and then opened fire. At another point in roughly the same area, two trucks with guns mounted on the back attacked the rebels from the direction of the sea, they said.
As night fell, the opposition fighters set up a defensive position outside of Bin Jawwad. Others wandered aimlessly around the Bin Jawwad checkpoint, firing guns in the air, this time, out of frustration, or boredom.
The government’s loss of Surt could help decide the war, since it blocks the rebels’ advance toward the west of the country and Tripoli. General Ham’s warning, however, offered a somber counterpoint and underscored the essential role of Western airstrikes, now focused mainly on Colonel Qaddafi’s ground troops, in reversing the rebels’ fortunes. It also framed anew the question of how the poorly equipped rebel forces might fare against Colonel Qaddafi’s garrison in Surt, where air cover may be less useful.
Left open, as well, was the question of how the Allies could justify airstrikes on Colonel Qaddafi’s forces around Surt if, as seems to be the case, they enjoy widespread support in the city and pose no threat to civilians.
The Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, strongly criticized the allied attacks, saying: “We consider that intervention by the coalition in what is essentially an internal civil war is not sanctioned by the U.N. Security Council resolution.” The resolution authorized “all necessary measures” to protect civilians in Libya. It also called for an arms embargo that applies to the entire territory of Libya, which means that any outside supply of arms to the opposition would have to be covert. Mr. Lavrov’s criticism was echoed by the Libyan government. “This is the objective of the coalition now, it is not to protect civilians because, now, they are directly fighting against the armed forces,” said Khaled Kaim, the deputy foreign minister, at a news conference in Tripoli. “They are trying to push the country to the brink of a civil war.”
At a news conference in Naples, Italy, Canadian Lieutenant General Charles Bouchard, who has been named to lead the NATO air campaign, said that the goals of the air campaign remained the same, “to protect and help the civilians and population centers under the threat of attack.”
Several loud bombs exploded near Tripoli on Monday night, followed by bursts of antiaircraft fire. In a news conference, government officials said the Sahara town of Sabha— another bastion of tribal support for Colonel Qaddafi, along with Surt— had also been hit hard by airstrikes in recent nights.
The government declared the western city of Misurata “liberated” and organized a bus trip there for Western journalists to prove that it was under government control. But the visit revealed only anxious Qaddafi soldiers perched at the perimeter amid burned out cars, torn down billboards, and bullet-ridden office buildings, with the sounds of gunfighting echoing nearby. “Everything is fine, please step back, please step back,” one haggard-looking soldier said unconvincingly, as he blocked journalists from walking down the city’s central Tripoli Avenue.
Pro-Qaddafi forces surrounding the city have hammered it with heavy artillery for weeks, but rebels wielding machine guns and small arms have held on to the city center. Gunmen were perched on rooftops along Tripoli Avenue, as rebels speaking by satellite telephone have described. It could not be determined whether the city’s water and power had been restored, as the government says and the rebels deny, but there was no mobile phone service in the area.
A few badly bent and burnt trailers and a damaged tank suggested evidence of Allied airstrikes. A large cloud of black smoke hung in the distance; rebels have said the airstrikes hit an ammunition depot that was still burning. Qaddafi soldiers had placed blankets and tree branches over the tanks, apparently in an effort to hide them from warplanes.
The soldiers appeared fatigued, and one, perched on an artillery truck, wore only sandals instead of boots on his feet. The overwhelming pro-Qaddafi demonstration that often greets foreign journalists was also notably flagging. Only a few dozen of the usual green-flag wavers showed up, and they made little effort to disguise the fact that they had been bused into the city.