More Southerners

John Fritze has an article in USAToday about a shift in demographics:

Although a decades-old population shift favoring Sun Belt states slowed this year, the South continues to seize political power once held by the Northeast and Midwest, Census Bureau estimates show. Eight states, including six in the South and Southwest, would gain seats in the House of Representatives if apportionment were done today rather than after the 2010 Census, according to an analysis by the non-partisan Election Data Services. Texas would be the biggest winner, adding three seats. In line to add a seat: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah, and Washington. Ohio would lose two seats, and Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania would each lose one. "It's a continuation of the trend we've seen before," said Kimball Brace of Election Data Services.
In addition to affecting how more than $400 billion in federal money is distributed each year, the changes reflected in the Census are also reshaping the nation's political landscape. If the trends had been accounted for last year, President Obama's Electoral College margin over Republican John McCain would have been twelve votes smaller.
In Congress, larger delegations mean more committee seats, more lawmaker requests for pet projects known as "earmarks", and more clout when working together on issues vital to their states. Representative John Carter, a Republican from Texas, said Lone Star lawmakers have been able to win more federal transportation money, partly because they are a growing group. "Larger delegations, if they stay together, can have a real impact," said Carter, who ran for a district north of Austin created after Texas received two more seats following the 2000 Census. He sits on the influential House Appropriations Committee. The rise of Texas' influence has come at the expense of states like Illinois.
David Phelps, a Democrat, was defeated in 2002 after Illinois lost a House seat and he had to run against another incumbent in a new district. Phelps said larger districts make it harder for voters to connect with representatives. "When they cut the district this big, you don't get a district office or someone you can access for problems," Phelps said.
Population estimates released a year before the Census are often a reliable predictor of the official count, Brace said. Yet, this year, several states, including Oregon and North Carolina, are right on the edge of gaining a seat, he said.
The 2010 Census data, which will be released in early 2011, will represent the first step in an often bitter process of redrawing the boundaries of congressional and legislative districts. State lawmakers redraw the maps in most states, a function that has raised the stakes for the 2010 legislative elections. Redistricting fights already are shaping up in such states as California, where Democrats control the Legislature. If the trends hold, California would not gain any new House members, the first time that has been the case since 1920. "California's image as the Golden State has certainly collapsed," said Douglas Johnson, a fellow at the Rose Institute at Claremont McKenna College. "People aren't coming from other states, and a lot of people are leaving."