05 January 2016

Shi'ite storm

Rico's friend Kelley, always a cogent observer of the international scene, has this about the recent tiff between the Saudis and Iran:
I've been watching this one unfold. On the one hand, I have the feeling of "Let's you and him fight". Emotionally satisfying, but probably a bad idea. Removing any stable structure, no matter how bad, only opens the door to every flavor of Muslim crazy who wants to inherit control. The Saudis have been sowing the whirlwind for years, and the bills are coming due. They made a devil's bargain with the Wahabis from the beginning in the early 1930s, when Abdul Azziz al-Saud stormed to political primacy. The Wahabis played a very large role in that but, having got the bit in their teeth, they proved nigh impossible to rein in. But every revolution must have an end, and Abdul Azziz lured them into an ambush and massacred thousands. They've not challenged the government since, but the governments owes them big time.
Iran (aka Persia) is one of those sleeping giants. The revolution led by Ayatollah Khomeni marks the first time Iran has been in control of its own political destiny in nearly two hundred years. It was a real sea change for the Shia. As punishment for not coming to the support of Prince Ali (the grandson of Mohammed) at the Battle of Karbala, the Shia have, for centuries, felt that their second class citizenship was deserved and (like dippy Christians) felt that this world was to be endured for a reward in heaven. Khomeni changed all that. Now they flexing their muscles. Every country in the Middle East has a Shia minority. But, in some countries, like Saudi Arabia, it's a sizable minority, snd it's centered in the northwest corner of the Kingdom where we find the largest, richest oil fields (the Ghawar) and the Raz-al-Tanurah refinery (the largest refinery and shipping port). The Shia are the majority in that province.
We (the United States) promoted fire-breathing Islam all during the Cold War in the hope that the 'donkeys of the earth' would not hear the siren call of Communism. We have raised up, instead, a healthy, surly junk-yard dog.
Lastly, I've been seeing articles claiming Saudi Arabia and Iran are locked in a struggle for the soul of Islam: the Wahabis against the Ayatollahs. Maybe so. All-in-all, it's an interesting, if volatile, stew that we see boiling. There will be a shit storm if it blows.

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