07 March 2014

Beware the Ides of March


John Bolaris has a review of the recent storm:
Somehow the assassination of Julius Caesar on 15 March 44 BC (a prophecy had warned him of a possible assassination by that date) evolved into weather prophecy which warns us now of the true uncertainties, meteorologically speaking, between 12 and 15 March.
The infamous blizzard on 12 March 1888, which shut down the entire Northeast for more than a week, most likely helped to precipitate the phrase Beware of the Ides of March.
Right now, computer models are suggesting that some type of a storm accompanied by snow, sleet and rain will spread through the Ohio Valley, with a secondary storm taking shape somewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast. The time frame for this potential winter storm would fall right around 12 to 13 March 2014.
It's still quite early in determining whether this will be a juicy meat-and-potatoes type of storm or just, shall we say, a tossed Caesar salad. Now I do have some good news: the Pacific North Atlantic teleconnection pattern (PNA), which has been in the positive mode for most of this winter and has established a warm West Coast and a very cold and stormy eastern half of the nation, is soon to go negative. This will help to break down the tremendous ridge in the West (a mountain of high pressure) which has been the atmospheric catalyst leading to constant cold and higher than normal storm frequency here in the East.
The deep Eastern trough which funnels in the cold and stormy conditions will relax and allow for a significant shift to a more gentle weather cycle and much milder temperatures. This should lock up the core of polar air north of the border.
The PNA looks to go negative around St. Patrick's Day, the 17th of March, with more consistent periods of milder temperatures to follow and the polar vortex on the retreat. Right now, late March is looking much more tame and hopefully will go out like a lamb.
In the meantime, your Friday will feature increasing clouds with late-in-the-day rain likely across southeast New Jersey and rain for central and southern Delaware. The city itself could see some passing showers with the bulk of any rain south and east of the Delaware River. Saturday looks great; dry, with temperatures rising into the fifties, before the next cold front cools us back down into the lower forties on Sunday.
Rico says, okay, so it's not the Winter of 1887 (see below), or even 1888, but close enough...

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