19 September 2009

New theory entirely

Rico says it's not the Cold War as we knew it, that's for sure. Robert Wielaard has the story at the AP:
The head of NATO called for the United States, Russia, and NATO to link their missile defense systems against potential new nuclear threats from Asia and the Middle East, saying that the old foes must forget their lingering Cold War animosity.
Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen appealed for unity a day after the US shelved a Bush-era plan for an Eastern European missile defense shield that has been a major irritant in relations with Russia.
"We should explore the potential for linking the three missile defense systems at an appropriate time," Fogh Rasmussen said. "Both NATO and Russia have a wealth of experience in missile defense. We should now work to combine this experience to our mutual benefit."
Russian envoy Dmitry Rogozin said the NATO chief's address had a "very positive tone." "Cooperation with Russia is not a matter of choice but of necessity," Rogozin said.
Fogh Rasmussen called for a reconsideration of NATO-Russia relations. He said long-range ballistic missile technology in the hands of such countries as North Korea and Iran threatens both the West and Russia. "If North Korea stays nuclear, and if Iran becomes nuclear, some of their neighbors might feel compelled to follow their example," he said.
Making NATO and Russian missile defense systems interoperable is a minor issue compared to finding enough political will to let software and other experts at radar sites and command centers exchange military data on a sustained basis. Since 2003, NATO and Russia have staged at least four simulated missile defense exercises. Both sides say they were successful.
"They showed NATO's and Russia's missile defense systems could be made interoperable," Rogozin told reporters Friday. "They showed this can enhance the level of security for everyone."
A NATO diplomat, speaking privately, said "there were even plans for a live exercise." That did not happen, said the official, because of political turmoil in the NATO-Russia relationship
In his address to the Carnegie Europe think tank in Brussels, Fogh Rasmussen said NATO and Russia remain hostages of Cold War thinking. "When the Cold War ended twenty years ago, NATO and Russia developed rather unrealistic expectations about each other," he said. "Those flawed expectations... continue to burden our relationship."
Thursday saw a break with the US decision to abandon the Bush administration's plan to deploy an American missile shield in Eastern Europe because of a changed perception of the threat posed by Iran. US intelligence decided short- and medium-range missiles from Iran now pose a greater near-term threat than the intercontinental ballistic missiles the Bush plan addressed.
A new missile-defense plan would rely on a network of sensors and interceptor missiles based at sea, on land, and in the air as a bulwark against Iranian short- and medium-range missiles.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin praised Obama's decision, and urged the US to also cancel Cold War-era restrictions on trade with Russia.
Rogozin, the Russian NATO envoy, said in Brussels that the shelving of the US missile shield in Eastern Europe means Russia will now not deploy short-range Iskander missiles near Poland. "If you have no radars and missiles in the Czech Republic and Poland, we don't need to find some response," he said.
Russia has long sought a stronger voice in European missile defense plans and has said it would like to link systems. But it insists on a joint analysis of threats first. The Kremlin has always contended the potential threat from Iran was not as serious as the Bush administration said it was. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's foreign policy adviser suggested that Obama's decision to scrap the plans could lead to closer cooperation on security issues, including missile defense.
A key irritant in NATO's relations with Moscow is the drive to bring ex-Soviet states and satellites into the alliance which now has 28 members. The membership prospects of Georgia and Ukraine especially have soured relations. While proposing an unprecedented level of military cooperation with Moscow, Rasmussen said NATO will continue to admit new members if they are judged suited for membership.
Rogozin said Russia continues to object to NATO's claim to be Europe's premier security provider, saying the alliance must formally recognize the Collective Security Treaty Organization that Moscow created in 2002. Its members include Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
Rico says the solution, of course, is to combine NATO and CSTO into the ETO. (Or ECATO, if the Central Asians insist on equal billing.) You heard it here first...

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