The weasel goes down, maybe

Robert Worth has an article in The New York Times about the Iranian election:

Less than two months ago, it was widely assumed here and in the West that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran’s hard-line president, would coast to another victory in the elections on Friday. Many of the reformists who sat out the vote in 2005 seemed dejected and unlikely to raise a strong challenge. As voters went to the polls Friday, that picture has been transformed. A vast opposition movement has arisen, flooding the streets of Iran’s major cities with cheering, green-clad supporters of Mir Hussein Moussavi, the leading challenger. Mr. Ahmadinejad, seemingly on the defensive, has hurled extraordinary accusations at some of the Islamic republic’s founding figures, but the tactic has served to unify a diverse and passionate body of opponents of his populist economic policies and confrontational approach to the West.
Some Iranians believe that the unruly democratic energies unleashed over the past few weeks could affect this country’s politics no matter who wins. Mr. Ahmadinejad’s radical policies and personal attacks, they say, have galvanized powerful adversaries who will use his own accusations of corruption and mismanagement against him. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, who has the final say in affairs of state and prefers to avoid open conflict, may force Mr. Ahmadinejad to steer a more moderate course if he is re-elected.
“The elite will not let go of Ahmadinejad’s neck” if he wins, said Muhammad Atrianfar, a journalist and former government official who supports Mr. Moussavi. “The official institutions will be in conflict with him, including the Parliament.”
But hope has often outpaced reality in Iran, and similar democratic movements have been stifled in the past by the country’s clerical leadership. In 1997, a burst of student demonstrations was followed by mass arrests, and a broader crackdown has taken place since Mr. Ahmadinejad succeeded his reformist predecessor, President Mohammad Khatami, in 2005.
And for all the hopes placed in him, Mr. Moussavi is no liberal. Another candidate, Mehdi Karroubi, is more closely associated with the core causes of the Iranian reformist movement, including the freeing of political prisoners and women’s rights.
Moreover, there are limits to what any Iranian president can do. Although Mr. Ahmadinejad has tried to augment the powers of the presidency, it is Ayatollah Khamenei, as supreme leader, who controls the direction of foreign policy.
Still, Mr. Moussavi would clearly push for a less confrontational stance toward the West. He implicitly criticized Iran’s support for militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, saying the government should focus on domestic problems instead.
Perhaps more important to Iranians, Mr. Moussavi would change economic policy; Mr. Ahmadinejad has been criticized for economic stagnation, including rising inflation and unemployment. A former prime minister in the 1980s, Mr. Moussavi is given great credit for managing Iran’s economy effectively during the war with Iraq.
Much of Mr. Moussavi’s popularity derives from support by Mr. Khatami, the charismatic reformist cleric who was president from 1997 to 2005. But in some ways he could be more effective as president, analysts say. He is more pragmatic than Mr. Khatami, and because he is less distasteful to the hard-line clerical elite, he could have more success than Mr. Khatami did in promoting his agenda.
Moreover, opposition leaders say Mr. Moussavi, if elected, would have the advantage of a powerful popular movement behind him, and not just because the street demonstrations of the past weeks have been bigger than those of earlier elections. Women have become a potent force in this campaign for the first time in the Islamic republic’s 30-year history, with all three opposition candidates making major efforts to win their votes.
Mr. Moussavi broke with precedent by campaigning alongside his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, a prominent professor and artist who was famous before he was. Other candidates have promised to extend women’s rights as well. Campaign rallies for Mr. Moussavi often seem to include more women— who make up half the voters in Iran— than men. Some say this is another aspect of the campaign that could remain important regardless of who wins. In April, a number of secular and conservative women’s groups joined forces and submitted a list of demands for greater rights from Iran’s next president.
Political and economic factors could also play a role. Iran’s oil revenue has dropped precipitously over the past year. The country is facing political challenges in Iraq and Afghanistan, and its allies in Lebanon lost an important election there on Sunday. All these things could moderate Mr. Ahmadinejad’s aggressive, free-spending style if he is re-elected, analysts say.
Mr. Moussavi’s supporters say they are confident that change is coming. Mr. Ahmadinejad sounded defensive during his last allotted television spot on Wednesday night, repeating again and again that he was not a liar, as his opponents have claimed. One of his final campaign rallies was canceled Wednesday afternoon after the university where it was to be held unexpectedly refused to delay exams to accommodate the president. A large crowd of students chanting anti-Ahmadinejad slogans forced him to change his plans again, and he ended up speaking to a much smaller group of supporters.
Opposition leaders say they expect a huge turnout on Friday, with many of the reformists who sat out the vote in 2005 saying they will take part this time, to help unseat Mr. Ahmadinejad. Mr. Moussavi’s supporters say they remain concerned about the possibility of fraud, but a determined campaign— led in part by Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, an influential former president— has kept that issue in the public eye. Mr. Rafsanjani urged Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, to prevent any fraud in an extraordinary public letter on Tuesday, and on Thursday he met with the ayatollah for three hours.
For all the confidence of the opposition, it would be wrong to count Mr. Ahmadinejad out. He has the strong support of most of Iran’s rural voters, and his populist economic policies have won the loyalty of many pensioners and state employees, as well as the pious poor.
If he wins a second term, many here are now asking what will become of the “green wave”— the name given to the vast crowds of people who have filled the streets in recent weeks dressed in the signature color of the Moussavi campaign, demanding change. “It depends on us,” said Mr. Karroubi, the reformist cleric who is running against Mr. Ahmadinejad, in an interview at his campaign offices. “What sort of action shall we take? Shall we continue on our way, or shall we go into a coma?”