26 October 2008

Weren't we just in an oil boom?

David Ivanovich at the Houston Chronicle asked the question, then answered it:
Three months ago, crude had rocketed to a record $147 a barrel because investors were confident the world's thirst for oil would only continue to grow. Now, with the credit markets stuck in deep-freeze and economies around the globe tumbling into recession, world oil demand has flat-lined. The price of crude has dropped by more than half since the summer.
Houston oil industry executives are warning of lower profits, oil field services and equipment are showing early signs of softening, and OPEC oil ministers are slashing production for fear of a price collapse. "The boom is not dead," declares Kevin Book, an oil analyst with FBR Capital Markets. "But it may be less of a bang, and more of a whimper." Economic activity is slowing. Motorists, with memories of $4-a-gallon gasoline still fresh, are parking their SUVs. And oil demand is growing at its slowest pace in years. In fact, some analysts believe oil demand could fall next year for the first time in a generation.
Institutional investors and other speculators, who had waded into oil commodities and helped drive up prices to unheard-of heights, have largely fled the scene. And now oil analysts are left to ponder just how low oil prices can go — perhaps $50 a barrel by the end of next year, suggests Deutsche Bank's Adam Sieminski.
Faced with such prospects, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed Friday to cut its production quotas by 1.5 million barrels a day, but crude still dropped $3.39 to close at $64.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile. If the OPEC members' adherence to previous agreements is any guide, the announced production cut will likely be smaller, Sieminski says. But with today's gloomy economic climate, OPEC would have been better off doing nothing, argues Leo Drollas, chief economist for the Centre for Global Energy Studies, a London-based oil consulting firm founded by one-time Saudi Oil Minister Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani. "Put the light out, hide behind the sofa, and hope for the best," Drollas said, because doing otherwise could prolong an economic downturn that will affect OPEC as well. "You're part of the world economy," he said. "You're not on planet Zong, looking down at the earthlings having trouble."
Rico says he's doing his part; he hasn't driven an inch in two years...

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