13 October 2008

Another guy we won't miss

The BBC has the story about Kim:
The absence of the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, from celebrations marking the 60th anniversary of the country's founding triggered a frenzy of speculation.
Several analysts suggested he had died, others that he was incapacitated.
The conclusion reached by South Korea's intelligence service on Wednesday was that he had suffered a stroke, but was still capable of running the country.
Some say all this speculation about Mr Kim's health was an overreaction.
But many others have pointed out that the rumours raise a very important point - one day Mr Kim will die or become unable to govern; does the world have a plan for what to do then?
North Korea has coped with the death of a leader once before - in 1994, when Great Leader Kim Il-sung died. But analysts say that was different. When Kim Jong-il took over from his father, he had long been groomed as a successor. This time, "the children are young and with no obvious experience in terms of managing anything", Hazel Smith, North Korea specialist at Warwick University, told the BBC's Today programme. None has been officially recognised as a successor.
Amid the vacuum, there have been reports of an embryonic power struggle within the North Korean elite. It is dominated by three main groups: the Kim family, the Korean Workers' Party and the armed forces.
Rico says just what we need, turmoil in North Korea...
There have been big changes in North Korea in the 14 years since Kim Il-sung passed away. A devastating famine and economic collapse have - to an extent - loosened the government's suffocating hold on its people, particularly in cities and in border regions. Private economic activity has blossomed as state provision has failed. But there are tensions within the army over whether to continue with such reforms. The population was badly traumatised by the death of Kim Il-sung - partly because of the personality cult which surrounded him, but partly also because it heralded a period of intense isolation and impoverishment in which more than a million people may have died. Small protests have been reported in areas where local officials have attempted to rein in private trading - and such protests could snowball. That could be a central factor in how durable any successor regime proves to be.
It is, of course, difficult to assess what preparations have been made in Washington, Beijing and Seoul for a succession crisis in North Korea, because governments do not often reveal details of their contingency planning. But the picture painted by analysts is a gloomy one. The impact of what happens inside North Korea's borders is not confined to North Korea. The country may possess nuclear weapons. Failing social provision within North Korea has already sent thousands of humanitarian refugees streaming beyond the country's borders - mainly into north-eastern China. A leadership crisis could turn this stream into a flood. Sitting between China, Russia, Japan and South Korea, North Korea is situated in a place of extreme geopolitical importance.
Even if Kim Jong-il is still alive and well, these rumours of his ill health may prove to be a useful wake-up call.

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