After a lull in activity, events began moving very quickly in the Ukraine over the weekend. Pro-Russian protesters seized a government building in the eastern city of Donetsk, proclaiming an independent “republic” and vowing to hold a referendum on regional sovereignty by 11 May, two weeks ahead of the Ukraine’s presidential election on 25 May. Some of the protesters have reportedly called on Russia to send in troops.
The Russian government has said that it has no intention of intervening on the Ukrainian mainland, but has reserved the right to protect ethnic Russians living there. The Ukraine’s interim president, Oleksandr Turchynov, has accused Russia of “playing out the Crimea scenario”, which was activists seize power, hold a referendum on independence, Russian troops move in for their “protection”, the territory is annexed.
Of course, for reasons I’ve discussed here before, the eastern Ukraine is quite different from the Crimea— bigger, less historically autonomous, less overwhelmingly Russian in its demographics. Kiev and its Western allies have also had more time to prepare than they did prior to the Crimean events, which took place almost in the immediate wake of the overthrow of the Ukrainian government.
In March, the Ukraine mobilized tens of thousands of reservists and diverted six hundred million dollars toward the purchase of weapons. This is not to say that the Ukraine is ready to fight a war with Russia; the country’s own estimates suggest that only six thousand of its forty thousand ground troops are combat-ready, and more than seventy percent of its armored equipment is obsolete. Nonetheless, Turchynov’s statements suggest that the Ukraine would be willing to fight back in the event of a Russian invasion of the mainland so, at the very least, this would not be the same kind of mostly-bloodless affair that the Crimea was.
As military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer argued a few weeks ago, the Kremlin has a limited window of opportunity if it wants to do this; it would probably want to invade before the 25 May election gains the new Ukrainian government more stability and legitimacy, and a planned rotation of Russian military conscripts also speeds up the timetable.
Given how long the world has been watching this situation, one would also imagine that the Ukraine’s international backers have some sort of response planned, which seemingly was not the case prior to the Crimea, when Western governments seemed to be caught flat-footed.
It seems quite possible that Vladimir Putin may not yet have decided on plans for the eastern Ukraine. But, whatever he decides, we’ll probably know soon.
Rico says this is gonna get ugly...
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