15 April 2014

One last whack from winter


John Bolaris, a former Philadelphia weatherman, has an article at Philly.com about a (hopefully) last shot of winter:
Let's face it, the past few days have been our ultimate weather fantasy. Temperatures have soared into the seventies and eighties, helping our psyche rebound from one of the worst winters of all time. As we strolled around with renewed energy in our dusted off summer clothing we felt good knowing that finally that Old Man Winter has been beaten back by the spring gods, knocked out and left on the canvas for months to come.
When I was your local television forecaster in Philadelphia, I always used the 15th of April as the cut-off for snow, because by looking back on the history books there was still a low-to-moderate chance of accumulating snow by the 15th of April.
Well, it looks like Old Man Winter, although staggered, still has enough left in him to throw us (hopefully) one last left hook before leaving this part of the planet.
An early season Bermuda high (high pressure that circulates over the Bermuda region in the Atlantic and sends very warm air up and along the Eastern Seaboard) is in place. I like to call it the "heat pump effect". In the spring, it's a gift, as it allows for a very pleasant change to much warmer temperatures, except along coastal sections due to the cold ocean influence. In the summertime, the Bermuda high positioning is much more common and we bake as temperatures soar into the nineties and, at times, triple digit heat.
This Bermuda high effect will start to break down tomorrow as a very dynamic and powerful cold front (for this time of the year) will bump heads with the very mild air still in place. The battle zone of clashing air masses will start to take place on Tuesday as mild and moist air will be squeezed out by an advancing Arctic front accompanied by a huge temperature drop. On the east side of the front temperatures will be near seventy degrees and on the western flank of the front readings will be in the forties, thirties, and twenties.
Dress for two seasons on Tuesday, as the day itself will be unseasonably mild as temps near seventy degrees, but after 2 pm, rain will become heavy at times. Between four and seven pm, a band of thunderstorms may develop as the winter air mass forms a defining line of thunderstorms, or the leading edge of the Arctic front. The evening rush will feature heavy rain with plenty of ponding of the roadways and perhaps some isolated stream flooding along with wind gusting to thirty to forty mph from the south.
After 8 pm, dress for winter, as a rapid temperature plunge will take place. When the front crosses your town expect a quick fifteen to twenty degree drop within an hour with a dramatic wind shift to the west, and gusts to forty mph plus.
After 10 pm, temps will be cold enough for snow, but by that time moisture should be limited, so I'm not anticipating any snow accumulations in the city, southern New Jersey, or Delaware. Still, I can't rule out some accumulating snow in the Lehigh Valley, the Poconos, and perhaps northern Bucks County.
Temps by Wednesday morning will be around freezing in town and in the twenties across our suburbs to the north and east. Since plants have already started blooming, you might want to protect those vulnerable to a possible freeze.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be some twenty to thirty degrees colder than the past few days as readings struggle to get above fifty. One significant side note: I can't rule out the possibility of rogue severe thunderstorm popping up late in the day on Tuesday.
Reality, sometimes, bites you right in the ass.
Rico says that he, along with everyone else he knows, is more than done with fucking Old Man Winter...

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