01 March 2014

Winter for the day


John Bolaris has an article about yet more of that (gah) white stuff:
The March lion will not only roar on Monday, but it might actually take a big bite out of our winter-fatigued mind and bodies. Let me start with the good news: your weekend, for the most part, will be dry, and temperatures on Saturday will moderate toward seasonable levels of close to 42 degrees. The leading edge of the developing high-impact winter storm will not arrive until Sunday evening.
The set-up: Pacific energy racing across the country will ignite storm development in the Southern Plains, as severe storms erupt Saturday night from Oklahoma City, Oklahoma to Springfield, Missouri.
A polar front dividing mild and moist air to the east and bitter cold to the west will act as the bowling alley for a series of storm systems to ride along and spread a huge swath of snow, ice and severe storms, starting in the Southern Plains and working its way eastward into the Gulf states, the Tennessee Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, and starts to arrive here in the Northeast by Sunday evening. When the first energy wave arrives here Sunday evening, enough milder air will still be in place that we should start out as rain in the city, with a mix of sleet and snow across Berks and the Lehigh Valley counties.
After midnight, however, a huge dome of polar air will begin to sink southward and, as it does, temperatures will steadily drop below freezing before daybreak on Monday. This means any rain will change over to a possible period of freezing rain, before going to all snow during the Monday morning commute.
The second storm, and the one with the most moisture, takes over early Monday and brings heavy snow, accumulating rapidly as temperatures nosedive into and through the twenties. Right now, either side of the I-95 corridor stands a chance of receiving at least six inches of snow and possibly more, depending on how quickly the changeover takes place and where exactly the heaviest snow band sets up. The latest computer guidance in some models indicate that ten-plus inches could fall in some locations.
It's still early in the weather ballgame, meaning forecasting snow and ice amounts is still very difficult. The worst of it will take place during the Monday morning commute and through early afternoon. All snow should be tapering off and ending between four and six pm Monday. Whatever is on the ground by late Monday will be frozen rock solid through Tuesday as temperatures plunge into the teens.
In summary: this has the potential to be a high-impact storm. Not so much as far as wind or super-high snow amounts. rather just how much freezing rain and/or sleet will accumulate before we change over to the frozen layer cake, with snow on top of who-knows-how-much ice. That is the biggest concern and a question that can't be answered at this time.
Rico says enough already...

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