War is probably inevitable, yet again

Jodi Rudoren has an article in The New York Times about the Middle East:

Syrian rebel groups briefly took control recently of the only crossing between Israel and Syria, bringing the intense violence of that nation’s civil war closer than ever to the Golan Heights, where farmers were told to stay out of their fields, tourists were turned away from cherry-picking, and roads were closed.
At the same time, not seventy miles away, scores of Israeli soldiers engaged in an elaborate combat exercise preparing for what is increasingly seen here as an inevitable war with Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shi'ite militant group that has come to the aid of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
The confluence of events confronted Israel with the complex reality of a civil war just across the border in which both sides are hostile to the Jewish state. Hezbollah has vowed in recent weeks that it would facilitate attacks on Israel through the heights. And the most effective rebel force is made up of radical Sunnis aligned with al-Qaeda, while many of the other militias are led by self-identified Islamists.
The result has been a kind of paralysis in Israeli society, where options are debated but no clear consensus has emerged about which outcome of the Syrian crisis is preferable or how to prepare for it. The situation grew even more worrisome for Israel recently, with hours of fierce battle at the Quneitra crossing, after which the Syrian government claimed it had regained control and the United Nations peacekeeping force that has patrolled the area for forty years was at risk of disintegrating.
“It’s definitely a heightened risk, if only because it blurs the situation,” said Daniel Nisman, a Middle East intelligence expert at Max Security Solutions, a Tel Aviv geopolitical risk consultancy. “What it means is that the Golan Heights is a lot more unstable and requires a lot more vigilance.”
Austria has pulled its 380 troops from the thousand-member United Nations force that has patrolled the so-called buffer zone between Israel and Syria since a 1974 armistice deal. In a statement, Israel’s Foreign Ministry said it regretted Austria’s decision, and hoped “that it will not be conducive to further escalation in the region.” Analysts said a withdrawal of the United Nations force could turn Israel’s quietest border into a no man’s land where terrorists are free to operate.
“This is going to be one of the most complicated situations we are going to face in the near future,” said Amnon Sofrin, a retired Israeli general who lectures at Israel’s National Defense College.
Israeli military and political officials insist that they do not want to get involved in Syria’s internal conflict, but that they will not hesitate to protect their own interests: stopping advanced weapons transfer to Hezbollah, or ensuring the safety of citizens in the heights. In recent weeks, the focus has been on a series of Israeli airstrikes targeting weapons convoys in Syria bound for Lebanon. But the escalation in Quneitra, during which at least three mortar shells fell in open areas, returned attention to the cease-fire line, where the Israeli military has recently replaced reservists with highly trained soldiers, increased patrols and added heavy equipment.
“It’s really a situation that is not clear, and can take a turn at any moment,” warned Aviv Oreg, a major in the military reserves who founded Ceifit, a firm offering research and analysis on global jihad. “As soon as one bomb would leak and hit a kindergarten, that’s a whole new ballgame.”
Though there have been frequent clashes near the Golan Heights, with dozens of errant shells falling into Israeli territory, this was the most serious threat yet to the territory, analysts said. A rebel group claimed on Facebook to have “liberated the border crossing with Israel” and to have “inflicted overwhelming losses” on the Syrian Army, destroying four of its tanks. Hours later, SANA, the Syrian state news agency, said government forces had “repelled terrorist groups” that tried to take over Quneitra, referring to the rebels. The Israeli military said that two severely wounded Syrians were taken to an Israeli hospital, but that a number of others who tried to cross were treated and then returned through a different location.
Israeli residents of the area reported loud explosions and thick walls of smoke over Quneitra starting at 4:30 am and lasting much of the day. “This is the worst it’s been so far,” said Nadav Katz, who lives in Merom Golan, a five-hundred-member kibbutz very close to the crossing. “We hear bombs, we hear mortars, we hear light arms, we hear bombardments of heavier weapons, but whether these are tanks or cannons, I’m not sure. We hope at some point it will stop and things will calm down.”
The army closed some roads and fields, but children remained in school and adults at work. At Kibbutz Ein Zivan, a community of about eighty families, tourists were not allowed to pick cherries as usual, but still visited the chocolate factory and rode on horses and tractors.
David Spellman, 69, said he was supposed to have furniture delivered, but the store in Haifa called to cancel. Otherwise, he said, “The effect on life here is minimal. The dogs are going crazy,” Spellman said. “But we’re used to that from the exercises of the army.”
As that was playing out, Israel continued to plan intensively for a third war in Lebanon, where it believes Hezbollah has amassed sixty thousand rockets aimed in its direction. Military leaders say that they have learned the lessons of their 34-day battle with Hezbollah in 2006, and that the next round will be short, deadly, and urban: one top general recently described Lebanese homes as having “a living room and a missile room” right next to each other.
That is why the army built a mock Lebanese village here at the Elyakim base, complete with three fortified underground tunnels, similar to what Hezbollah uses to store supplies.
A battalion of reservists culminated a five-day exercise by storming the village with gunfire, grenades, and, eventually, a trio of tanks that rolled through its hills. Eight enlisted men in American-made camouflage uniforms mimicking those worn by Hezbollah in 2006 played the enemy. “It seems really important now in this time, with all that’s happening in Syria,” said one of the Hezbollah actors, Ishay, who is 21 and spoke on the condition his last name not be used, according to military rules. “What they have here is what they do there.” Ishay and another actor, Adir, 22, said they fired at the reservists through windows and doors to attract them to a house, then threw fake grenades and shot their rifles, which were loaded with blanks, to stall them. They sneaked from building to building for about ninety minutes, then were declared defeated, as many of the reservists collapsed in naps on the floor after days with little sleep. “We always lose, just like the enemy,” Adir said. “Our enemies lose, too, in the end.”

Rico says that the Israels will be stepping in the Shi'ite with combat boots soon...