05 September 2011

Eating their own

Jeff Zeleny has an article in The New York Times about the Republicans:
Governor Rick Perry is privately being coached to come across as more presidential— cautious in his comments, deliberate in defending his Texas record— while building on his fast start by trying to consolidate support across the Republican spectrum, from the Tea Party and evangelicals to the party establishment.
Former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts is steeling for a long and combative fight for the Republican nomination, dropping his front-runner’s strategy and preparing to confront Perry on immigration, his quarter-century in government and his claims of creating jobs in Texas.
Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota is working to shatter the notion that the race is becoming a two-person contest, scaling back her campaign appearances to study Perry’s spending record in Texas in an effort to raise skepticism about his candidacy among Tea Party supporters.
The Republican field is entering a pivotal stage in the nominating contest as candidates increasingly move beyond criticizing President Obama and start to run against one another.
The outcome of three debates in the next three weeks starting Wednesday night, the first time Perry, Romney, and Bachmann will face one another, will influence fund-raising, shape strategy, and set perceptions as the candidates hurtle toward the start of voting early next year.
In both parties, there is now a sense that the president’s political frailty, underscored by the report that showed zero net job creation in August and new projections that unemployment will remain elevated through Election Day next year, is even greater than it appeared at the start of the summer, injecting additional energy and urgency into the Republican primary race.
While many Democrats once hoped that perceived deficiencies among the Republican contenders could provide a lifeline to Obama, the prospect of losing the presidency is no longer summarily dismissed by his advisers.
With so much at stake, the lineup of candidates remains unsettled. Sarah Palin signaled during a weekend swing through Iowa and New Hampshire that she might still jump in, declaring: “There’s room for more.” In a recent appearance, Palin made clear that she had no intentions of simply falling in line behind one of the party’s leading candidates. She urged voters to scrutinize Republican contenders, striking a populist tone as she warned against “crony capitalism” in both parties. “Our challenge is not just to replace Obama in 2012,” Palin said. “But the real challenge is who and what we will replace him with.”
At the same time, there remains a debate within the party about whether the candidates are moving too far right in pursuit of their most ideologically committed voters, and about how to balance principles against the assumption that winning the White House requires the ability to appeal to centrist voters. In recent weeks, former Governor Jon M. Huntsman Jr. of Utah has been making the case for moderation, attracting new attention.
“Republicans have to nominate someone better than the person they want to defeat,” said Mike Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor and 2008 presidential candidate. “If they get so adamant that they will only support a candidate that believes everything on their checklist, they will re-elect Obama.”
There are interwoven crosscurrents coursing through the field, but Perry, who has reshaped the race since declaring his candidacy three weeks ago, is at the center of nearly every Republican strategy. He is courting fund-raisers and reassuring potential supporters that he can withstand the intense scrutiny accompanying his new prominence, even as he scrambles to drain establishment support from Romney and erode enthusiasm for Bachmann among Christian conservatives. He invited a group of contributors to the Barton Creek Resort and Spa outside Austin, Texas last week for a political briefing and dinner. One participant said the governor reassured his guests that he “could take a punch and land a punch” and survive the glare of a presidential spotlight. He convened a separate meeting with evangelical leaders, where attendees told The Texas Tribune that Perry said: “There is nothing in my life that will embarrass you if you decide to support me for president.” His advisers are working with him on softening his language to avoid statements like the one that gained attention last month when he suggested that Ben Bernanke,  the chairman of the Federal Reserve, would get “ugly” treatment if he visited Texas. His aides, an all-Texas team, had grown accustomed to such comments over the last decade, and were taken aback by the criticism, but are now instructing him to avoid questions that could provoke a pointed response or to deflect situations with humor. He is devising answers to critiques of his Texas record and things he has written about in his books, studying foreign policy briefing papers and holding mock debating sessions. His performance, which is being carefully watched by Republicans, will set the tone for the fall. “We don’t need a nominee who’s going to blur the differences between themselves and Barack Obama,” Perry said, during a stop in New Hampshire. “We’re going to have a nominee who draws a clear contrast.”
The string of debates will allow candidates to introduce themselves to a wider audience, even as they try to shape perceptions of one another. The primary channel of negative campaigning at this stage is shaping up to be outside groups that have multiplied since a Supreme Court ruling last year allowed groups to accept unlimited money and promote candidates.
In South Carolina, a group called Keep Conservatives United, which supports Bachmann, opened the volley last week by questioning Perry’s credentials as a fiscal conservative. “He’s supposed to be the Tea Party guy?” the advertisement asks. The advertisements, along with the rising tenor of the candidates’ own words, provide a window into how they are preparing to challenge one another.
Interviews with a dozen advisers, including those inside campaigns and those aligned with outside groups, show lines of attack likely to emerge in the coming weeks.
For Romney, rivals are fixated on the health care bill he signed as Massachusetts governor and his 1994 Senate race against Senator Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts, where the two shared views on many issues which are at odds with his positions today.
For Perry, rivals are already reminding voters of his time as a Democrat— he switched parties two decades ago— and his record as Texas governor. In 2007, he tried to require girls to receive vaccinations against a virus that can lead to cervical cancer. The plan enraged many conservatives who saw it as an unwarranted intrusion by government, and a bow to sexual promiscuity. He ultimately dropped the effort and apologized, telling a Des Moines radio station: “I don’t always get it right.”
While Romney’s position as an early leader in the race has been shaken by Perry, it will almost certainly not be Romney who engages Perry first. He is already the subject of criticism from other rivals, including former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, who questions Perry’s credentials. “We’ll see how conservative Rick Perry really is,” Santorum said.
In Iowa, where the caucuses start the nominating contest, Perry is placing a high priority on the state. Romney is planning to decide how aggressively to compete here based on three factors: whether Bachmann can show she has staying power, whether Perry continues to gain strength and needs to be stopped, and if Palin runs. A Romney adviser said the campaign was prepared to “play heavily and hard if our strategy dictates it.”
While Romney has significantly stepped up his campaign efforts in response to Perry, advisers said he was considerably more reserved and less prone to panicky shifts in strategy than four years ago. The fact that he is on his second presidential run, aides said, is among his biggest attributes.
“This is going to be a long, drawn-out primary,” said Governor David Heineman of Nebraska, a supporter of Romney. “Mitt has been through this before. That’s a significant asset.”
Rico says that poor Romney still has a stupid name, Mitt...

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