Rico's rants: Another Kim? This we didn't need

03 June 2009

Another Kim? This we didn't need

Rico says we had enough of the first Kim to last us forever; now, according to an article in The New York Times by David Sanger, Mark Mazzetti and Choe Sang-hun, we get another one:

American and South Korean officials say that Kim Jong-il, the North Korean dictator recovering from a stroke, appears to have designated his youngest son as his successor. Mr. Kim may have ordered the country’s second nuclear test last week in hopes of leaving his son in control of a country that has cemented its status as a nuclear-weapons state.
Little is known about the youngest son, Kim Jong-un, beyond reports that he was secretly schooled in Switzerland under an assumed name, posing as the son of a driver in the nearby North Korean Embassy. He skied Switzerland’s famous slopes, and was a fan of Michael Jordan. But his path to power is hardly assured: some intelligence officials believe that everyone from the North Korean military to Kim Jong-il’s eldest son may be plotting behind the scenes to derail the succession plans, and North Korea’s last ally, China, is reportedly deeply uncomfortable with the thought of a third-generation family dynasty, unique among Communist nations.
As always in watching a state virtually sealed off from the outside world, analysts acknowledge that they are extrapolating from indicators, rather than hard evidence. Even Kim Jong-un’s age is uncertain; he is believed to be in his mid-20s. In recent weeks, North Korean diplomats abroad have been told to begin to pay homage to Kim Jong-un and some schoolchildren have reportedly been including his name in their songs. His rise comes at the expense of his 38-year-old brother, Kim Jong-nam, best known for the moment when he was caught slipping into Japan on a false passport, on his way to Tokyo Disneyland.
In preliminary assessments of the 25 May underground nuclear test, top officials of the Obama administration say they believe it was linked to the power jockeying in Pyongyang more than any attempt to force President Obama into more negotiations in which North Korea tries to trade away its nuclear ability for American energy and security concessions.
“There was a sense that every North Korean escalation was intended as a bargaining chip,” said one senior administration official involved in the assessments. “Now there’s an alternative view taking hold: that Kim Jong-il wants to force the world to acknowledge it as a nuclear power before he dies. And we’re not going to do that.”
Mr. Obama has sent James Steinberg, the deputy secretary of state, and other senior officials to Japan, South Korea, and China this week to attempt a unified response to the test, focusing on inspecting all sea and air traffic moving in and out of North Korea that could be carrying nuclear or missile technology.
But it is a risky move, one that could leave Mr. Obama facing a possible military confrontation with the North as he increases troop levels in Afghanistan. The most delicate issue is whether China will back the inspection of some North Korean vessels, which the North has already warned it would consider an act of war. The inspections were authorized, but not enforced, under a United Nations resolution passed after the North’s first nuclear test, in 2006.
A senior administration official said Tuesday that Chinese officials feared that if North Korea gained the ability to fit its nuclear weapons atop its long-range missiles, the United States would increase its military presence in the Pacific and Japan could reconsider its ban on its own nuclear weapons. But if the Chinese press too hard, the official said, “they risk unintentionally causing collapse in North Korea and instability” on their own border.
While Obama administration officials say they want to draw North Korea back into disarmament talks begun by President George W. Bush, they are not interested in negotiating yet another deal to disable the main nuclear facility at Yongbyon, where North Korea produces its bomb-grade plutonium. “The real challenge is to avoid a repetition of the past,” one senior administration official said.
Obama administration officials acknowledge that negotiations with the North may be all but impossible at a moment when it is unclear who is running the country and when all players in a succession struggle will avoid any perception of concessions to the United States.
There is no indication yet that the heir apparent has been involved in decisions about the nuclear program.
The current leader, Kim Jong-il, has three known sons. The eldest, Kim Jong-nam, was once considered the leading candidate to succeed his father, until the Disneyland episode added to rumors that his judgment was less than reliable. Kim Jong-nam is widely reported to have voracious appetites for alcohol and women, and his father apparently grew concerned that North Korea’s generals would never accept him, according to a former American intelligence official.
The North Korean leader’s middle son, Kim Jong-chol, 28, was another possibility, but Kenji Fujimoto, who once served as Kim Jong-il’s sushi chef, wrote in a memoir that Kim Jong-il dismissed that son as “girlish,” suggesting that he would not stand up to the West.
By default, that left Kim Jong-un. On Tuesday, South Korean lawmakers said they had been briefed by the country’s intelligence agency, and told he was the heir apparent. The intelligence agency intercepted messages to North Korean overseas missions a few days after the 25 May nuclear test, according to reports in Seoul.
“Our intelligence service has been following the matter for some time,” said Song Young-gil, an opposition lawmaker briefed by the intelligence agency. “They said that this message instructed the diplomats to pledge their allegiance to Kim Jong-un.”
Another lawmaker, Moon Kook-hyun, said he could not comment on a secret briefing but agreed that Kim Jong-un had been designated the successor. The intelligence agency declined to confirm the reports.
Inside the North, the subject is only whispered about. “I never thought that Kim Jong-il was human and thus mortal,” said Oh Yeon-jong, a defector who arrived in Seoul in 2004. “We didn’t know, didn’t talk about how many children he had, how many wives he had. I heard about them only when I arrived here.”
It also is not clear if a society that reveres seniority would accept such a young leader, and American officials are waiting for the next steps. One test could be the response of General O Kuk-ryol, the National Defense Commission’s vice chairman. Intelligence officials say they believe he would need to give his blessing to the transfer of power in Pyongyang. The general has taken greater control in recent years over the regime’s military and security policy. Analysts are also watching Jang Seong-taek, Kim Jong-il’s brother-in-law, who is believed to run many day-to-day state affairs on behalf of the ailing leader.
In any case, the outside world will be transfixed. At the CIA, the youngest son’s picture used to be posted in the Asia division, and analysts gave him the moniker of “the Cute Leader” — a play on his father’s status as “Dear Leader” and his grandfather’s as “Great Leader.”