24 October 2014

Submarine search called off



The BBC has an article about a Russian incursion into Swedish waters:
The Swedish military has called off its week-long search for a suspected submarine in the sea south of Stockholm, officials say. Naval vessels and planes have been searching the Stockholm archipelago (see map above) for the last week, amid suspicions a Russian submarine was in trouble there, but Russia's defense ministry denied any of its ships were involved.
The vessel, whatever it was, is now believed to have left Sweden's territorial waters.
The Swedish operation was reported to have been the country's biggest military mobilization since the Cold War.
In a statement, the military said (in Swedish): "This means the bulk of ships and amphibious forces have returned to port." It added that some smaller units would remain in the area.
Rear Admiral Anders Grenstad told reporters: "We assess that the vessel that violated our waters has now left. It's the assessment of the defense forces that probably foreign underwater activity has taken place in Stockholm's inner archipelago," he said, calling any such activity within Swedish territory "unacceptable". The military believed at least one vessel was involved, he said, adding that it was probably not a large submarine, but "a small vessel". Hundreds of people were said to be involved in the search, that the military said was based on "several credible operations".
Swedish officials had not said which country they thought was behind the "underwater activities", but there were widespread suspicions that the Russian navy was involved.
The operation was said to be Sweden's largest mobilization since the Cold War.
Russian officials have repeatedly denied any involvement, with a defense ministry statement saying: "There have been no extraordinary, let alone emergency situations, involving Russian military vessels."
Whatever the answers, what is clear is that Sweden's underwater defences are not up to scratch, the BBC's Malcolm Brabant reports. A new submarine-hunting helicopter is not due to come into service for a number of years, our correspondent adds.
Russia's military intervention in the Ukraine this year has fueled suspicion about its intentions towards other neighboring states, notably in the Baltic.
Recently, NATO said its jets intercepted a Russian spy plane that had briefly entered Estonian airspace. Russia said the plane had been on a training flight and had not violated Estonian airspace.
Sweden is not part of NATO, but has tightened its ties with the alliance. It signed a pact with NATO on 5 September 2014, allowing it to engage in joint training exercises, and receive assistance from NATO troops in emergencies.

Paul Kirby has another article from the BBC on the sub search:
Sweden's armed forces say they have abandoned their search for what they believed was a submarine, spotted not far from Stockholm more than a week ago.
The hunt was described as Sweden's biggest mobilization since the Cold War. Speculation had centred on Russia, but the Russians scoffed at the claims.
Was there a sub at all? We may never know for sure. Initially, the Swedish military was careful not to state for certain what it was looking for, preferring to describe the mysterious submerged object as belonging to a "foreign power". But as the search went on, the Swedes were explicit: they were hunting a submarine.
Despite Russia's protestations, its navy was singled out as most likely. It has large submarines as well as small. And the feeling was this one was probably small. There are two Russian mini-submarines that could fit the bill: the Piranha, seen as a diving submarine, and the Triton, used for research purposes.
Where was it spotted? That is the great mystery. There were reported sightings in the southern Stockholm archipelago. But there are so many islands that defense officials said searching the area successfully was almost impossible. The Swedish military handed out an image taken by a passerby showing an object in the sea near Stockholm. The first photo appearing to show the submarine went viral and the armed forces asked for further help in finding it. But they did not help matters when they deliberately gave out false information so as not to help a "foreign power".
When did it first show up? Much of the detail is unconfirmed, but Swedish media say the first emergency signal was heard on 16 October 2014, leading to reports of a damaged submarine
A radio conversation in Russian was reportedly detected on 16 October 2014 between the Stockholm archipelago and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, where Russia's Baltic fleet is based. A "man-made" object was then spotted in Kanholms Bay,
The military admitted that something was up and that ships, planes, and hundreds of people were involved in a search
The search centered on Kanholms Bay, an area of busy shipping lanes used by passenger ferries between Stockholm and the Latvian capital of Riga.
The first sighting captured on camera was released on Sunday. By Monday, the military admitted it had given out a wrong location for the picture so as not to help a "foreign power" The military said it was prepared to use force, hours after naval vessels scoured Ingaro Bay. After days of working day and night, the navy said it was reducing the number of ships in the search but not "de-escalating" its efforts. Those efforts were finally brought to a halt early on 25 October 2014.
Was the search that big? Apparently it was Sweden's largest mobilization since the Cold War. So many naval vessels were used that the scale of the night-and-day search had to be reduced because of exhaustion.
All manner of boats were used, including an M74 minesweeper, HMS Kullen, a stealth corvette, HMS Visby (photo, bottom), and fast-assault craft. The Visby is equipped with sonar, a 57mm gun, and two ROVs (remotely operated vehicles), one for underwater mine-hunting and the other for mine-disposal. The Visby is one of several boats that have been scouring the archipelago day and night
The Dagens Nyheter newspaper reported that an underwater ROV was being used in the search in Ingaro Bay.
Is any of this Cold War stuff plausible? Russians have treated the allegations with disdain, even suggesting it might be a Dutch submarine. But the Ukraine crisis has revived many of the trappings of the Cold War. In the space of a couple of months,
Estonia has accused Russia of abducting a security official, Finland has said Russian planes entered its airspace, and one of its research boats was interfered with in international waters in the Baltic, and NATO says a Russian spy plane briefly entered Estonian airspace on 21 October 2014, after flying near Denmark and Sweden.
Sweden, like Finland, is not part of NATO, but both have tightened their ties with the alliance. So the submarine hunt was seen in the context of a pact signed by Sweden and Finland on 5 September 2014, which enables joint training exercises and assistance from NATO troops in emergencies.
Many Swedes remember when a Russian sub loaded with nuclear torpedoes ran aground near a Swedish naval base in 1981.
What are the Russians doing about it? Their initial response was a flat denial. "There have been no extraordinary, let alone emergency situations, involving Russian military vessels," the defense ministry in Moscow said on Sunday.
Some analysts in Moscow have queried whether the hunt is more about Swedish politics than Russian, and the Swedish military's need to justify higher military funding with the arrival of Prime Minister Stefan Lofven's center-left government.
And it will not have gone unnoticed in Moscow that, the day before the search was cancelled, the new government announced a larger than expected increase in Sweden's defense budget, focusing in particular on developing a new Gripen fighter plane. But the three percent increase for 2015 was less than the four percent rise given by the previous government for this year.
However, the Russian response could just have as well have been a bluff. Why, for example, was a Russian-owned oil ship, NS Concord, circling just outside Swedish waters for hours on end? It is unclear, although the Swedish coastguard said its movements were not inconsistent with an oil tanker.
Then there was the involvement of another Russian ship, the Professor Logachev, described as a research vessel specializing in studies on the ocean floor. Swedish media said it was seen heading towards the Swedish island of Gotland late on Tuesday night.
The reality is this that mystery may never be solved.
Rico says it feels like the Cold War is coming back with a vengeance... (Putin must be feeling like getting tough, given the bloody nose they got in the Ukraine.)

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