Assad, on his way out

Michael Slackman has an article in The New York Times about the end of an era in Syria:

The Syrian government resigned in what might have been a prelude to other concessions in a speech President Bashar al-Assad is expected to give to the nation soon, part of an expanding effort to address protests against his authoritarian rule.
The resignation was seen as a significant, if primarily symbolic, gesture, in a nation where the leadership rarely responds to public pressure and where decisions are made, not by the cabinet, but by the president and his inner circle, including multiple security services.
“It is not about the government, it is about the policies of the state,” said Abdel Majid Manjouni, the head of the Socialist Democratic Arab Union Party in Aleppo. “The ministers are not the ones who decide these things. That is the president. He makes the policies.”
Mr. Assad’s speech was scheduled to try to calm tensions after government forces repeatedly opened fire on demonstrators, killing dozens of people. According to officials, the speech, originally expected on Monday, will offer significant political concessions, including the lifting of laws that restrict civil and political freedoms. The promises, however, were greeted skeptically by a public accustomed to a leadership that has talked of reform for years without results.
“Now it’s all about evaluating Assad’s words and how to judge his actions,” said Andrew J. Tabler, a Syria expert in Washington. “He doesn’t have a good track record on following through, and I can’t imagine he can now, given the regime’s structure.”
Mr. Assad initially boasted that his nation was immune to the popular unrest that has swept the region. But events in Syria have played out much as they have in other nations, moving from denial to a bloody crackdown, to efforts at appeasement. Now the Syrian president has little room to maneuver in terms of offering concessions without actually undermining his leadership and that of his allies.
If he lifts the emergency laws and allows free speech, the streets are likely to swell with demonstrators. If he dismantles the feared secret police services, he is liable to lose control amid widespread calls for freedom, the rule of law, and an end to systemic corruption. If he ends the Baath Party monopoly on power, it would likely lose at the polls.
“The emergency law is a cornerstone of Ba'athist rule, and once it goes everything else might go with it,” said Karim Émile Bitar, a researcher at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations in Paris. “Things could collapse for them if they’re serious about lifting it: liberation of political prisoners, multiple parties, no more harassing activists. People are going to use this to air more and more grievances.”
The resignation of the cabinet came as the government worked hard to restore its credibility after thousands marched against it around the country and the military took up positions in cities in the north and south. Tens of thousands of government supporters rallied in Damascus, the capital, waving flags and pictures of Mr. Assad. The government apparently bused in many of the demonstrators and pressured others to attend the rally.
Government supporters poured into the Square of the Seven Seas in Damascus, with thousands standing under a 45-foot-long portrait of the president on the Syrian national bank building. They chanted: Only God, Syria and Bashar! and With our soul, with our blood, we will redeem you, Bashar.
As the crowds dispersed early in the afternoon, a sense of carnival prevailed, with smiling children and couples holding hands and eating ice cream. Cars around the city honked their horns in support of Mr. Assad and stern young men sat atop microbuses, clutching pictures of the president. Similar rallies were held in major cities, with the noticeable exception of Latakia, a northwestern coastal town where a sit-in by hundreds of protesters continued, and Dara’a in the south. The military’s presence has been heavily felt in both cities after recent violence.
“Today, it was staging maneuvers before tomorrow’s big announcement,” Mr. Bitar said. “The idea is to prepare tomorrow’s speech, and ahead of it you have these demos, which show that Assad still benefits from a certain amount of popular support.”
The protests began more than a week ago in Dara’a, after the police arrested a group of young people for scrawling antigovernment graffiti. The ripples were felt nationwide after government forces fired on demonstrators. Protesters set fire to party offices in several towns, toppled a statue of the former president, Hafez al-Assad, and tore down billboards of the current president, his son, actions that have been unheard of in the repressive police state.
In his speech, Mr. Assad is expected to lift the emergency law, which has been in place since 1963 and has been used to silence all opposition. Even if it were lifted, analysts said, restrictions on public life would remain, including laws that limit the right to assembly and speech; that allow secret police services to use any means to preserve the status quo; and that preserve the Baath Party’s legal monopoly on power.
“Lifting the emergency law will not change anything on the ground without lifting the supplements of the emergency law and having radical political reform, especially the Constitution,” according to Radwan Ziadeh, a Syrian human rights advocate at George Washington University.