Mo' troops in Mosul

Rico says it seems the north of Iraq (which used to be pretty anti-Saddam in the early days) will have American troops after the date they're out of the rest of the country, according to an article by Rod Nordland in The New York Times:

The United States and Iraq will begin negotiating possible exceptions to the 30 June deadline for withdrawing American combat troops from Iraqi cities, focusing on the troubled northern city of Mosul, according to military officials. Some parts of Baghdad also will still have combat troops. Everywhere else, the withdrawal of United States combat troops from all Iraqi cities and towns is on schedule to finish by the 30 June deadline, and in many cases even earlier. But because of the level of insurgent activity in Mosul, military officials will meet Monday to decide whether to consider the city an exception to the deadline in the Status of Forces Agreement, or SOFA, between the countries.
“Mosul is the one area where you may see US combat forces operating in the city” after 30 June, the United States military’s top spokesman in Iraq, Major General David Perkins, said in an interview.
In Baghdad, however, there are no plans to close the Camp Victory base complex, consisting of five bases housing more than 20,000 soldiers, many of them combat troops. Although Victory is only a fifteen-minute drive from the center of Baghdad and sprawls over both sides of the city’s boundary, Iraqi officials say they have agreed to consider it outside the city.
In addition, Forward Operating Base (FOB) Falcon, which can hold 5,000 combat troops, will also remain after 30 June. It is just within Baghdad’s southern city limits. Again, Iraqi officials have classified it as effectively outside Baghdad, so no exception to the agreement needs to be granted, in their view.
Combat troops with the Seventh Field Artillery Regiment will remain in the heart of Baghdad at Camp Prosperity, located near the new American Embassy compound in the Green Zone. In addition to providing a quick reaction force, guarding the embassy and noncombat troops from attack, those soldiers will also continue to support Iraqi troops who are now in nominal charge of maintaining security in the Green Zone.
The details of troop withdrawals and the transfer of facilities are negotiated by the Joint Military Operations Coordinating Committee, led by the top American commander in Iraq, General Ray Odierno, and the Iraqi defense minister, Abdul Qadir al-Obaidi. At its meeting on Monday, the committee will discuss a host of transfer issues, as well as whether to grant any exceptions to the 30 June deadline, and it will make recommendations to Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki for a final decision.
The spokesman for the Iraqi military, Major General Muhammad al-Askari, who is also the secretary to the committee’s Iraqi contingent, said also that a decision on Mosul would be made at Monday’s meeting, which he called critical. “I personally think even in Mosul there will be no American forces in the city, but that’s a decision for the Iraqi government and the Iraqi prime minister,” General Askari said. General Perkins also expressed specific concerns about Mosul, noting how important the city is to al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia, the homegrown group that American intelligence officials say is led by foreigners.
“For al-Qaeda to win, they have to take Baghdad. To survive they have to hold on to Mosul,” he said. “Mosul is sort of their last area where they have some maybe at least passive support.” In Baghdad, whether combat troops remain in the city may well be a function of how they are defined, as well as where the city limits lie.
The Camp Victory complex includes Camps Victory, Liberty, Striker, and Slayer, plus the prison known as Camp Cropper, where so-called high-value prisoners are kept. It also includes the military side of Baghdad International Airport. General Askari said emphatically that the 30 June provision did not apply to the Camp Victory complex because it was effectively outside the city. General Askari also said having American combat troops at Camp Prosperity would not violate the terms of the agreement, because they are there for force protection and to guard the nearby embassy. “If there is a small group to stay in that camp to guard the American Embassy, that’s no problem,” he said. “The meaning of the SOFA is that their vehicles cannot go in the streets of Baghdad and interfere with our job.”
The Green Zone was handed over to Iraqi control on 1 January, when the agreement went into effect. In addition to the United States-Iraqi patrols, most of the security for the Green Zone’s many checkpoints and heavily guarded entry points is still done by the same private contractors who did it prior to 1 January. “What you’re seeing is not a change in the numbers, it’s a doctrine change,” said First Sergeant David Moore, a New Jersey National Guardsman with the Joint Area Support Group, which runs the Green Zone. “You’re still going to have fighters. Every US soldier is trained to fight.”
One of the Green Zone’s biggest bases, FOB Freedom, was handed back to Iraqi control on 1 April, at least most of it; the United States military kept the swimming pool. In addition to troops, Camp Prosperity will house many American contractors and other personnel. Next door, at Camp Union III, the military is in the process of setting up housing for several thousand soldiers, trainers, and advisers working for the Multi-National Security Transition Command, which now has its headquarters elsewhere in the Green Zone.
While those principal Baghdad bases will remain, the United States military has been rapidly erasing its footprint everywhere else in Baghdad. The so-called troop surge added 77 small bases, known as combat outposts, patrol bases, and joint security stations, spread throughout the city’s neighborhoods to get United States troops closer to the people. At the height, in 2007, there were nearly one hunded such bases. All of them will have been turned over to the Iraqis by 30 June, and many already have been, General Perkins said. He added that, in many cases, the Iraqis would choose not to use them for their own troops.
Nationwide, the American military presence is also changing quickly as 30 June approaches. A survey of northern and central Iraqi provinces by New York Times reporters confirmed that American troops had already withdrawn from all of the bases situated in the centers of major towns or cities, with the exception of Mosul.
General Perkins said that American combat forces had already been drawing down steadily in Iraq’s cities, replaced by Iraqi troops. By September 2008, the number of American troops in Iraq had dropped by about twenty percent from the peak during the so-called troop surge in 2007, he said. An additional 8,000 left by the end of January.
As of 17 April, there were 137,934 American service members in Iraq, according to Lieutenant Colonel Amy Hannah, a public affairs officer. An additional 16,000 will go by September, General Perkins said. “We don’t want to lose the gains we’ve had so far,” he said. “We don’t want to rush to failure here. This isn’t just 'we’re going home'. We’re just moving. We don’t mean you won’t have soldiers trained in combat skills in the city,” General Perkins said. Trainers and advisers can stay, under the terms of the agreement, and combat troops can re-enter on operations if invited by the Iraqis, he said. General Perkins gave the example of sending the 82nd Airborne Division to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. “The 82nd are combat troops, but that was not a combat mission,” he said.

Rico says that, semantics aside, it does look like we're getting outta Dodge. Unlike Saigon in the 70s, the Iraqis might survive after we go, too...